Year in Review: 2024

Having left the bank, in 2024 I wanted to do something to stretch myself.

What I did in 2024:

Explored an IP recycling strategy
Explored a management training/consulting business – CareerRehearsal
Explored joining a troubled early-stage company in a management role
Published my manifesto on how to manage, and banked wins on 3 management turnaround stories
Taught myself Webflow, Clay, and Attio
Investigated & discarded several other ideas including secondhand collectibles market and software for a personal rolodex/CRM

Investigated IP recycling strategy:

Identified two niches where old IP could be reused/repackaged/updated and resold to modern audience: old productivity tools, and video games. There is a certain combination of attributes for each that indicate they may be a good fit for rejuvenation.
- Researched over fifty properties
- Spoke with five IP owners and together with a colleague at a large family office, made offers on one which was declined.
- Productivity apps have mostly been subsumed by larger suites at microsoft/google etc. There are niches but I couldn’t find a program that met all of my criteria. Video games were a stronger prospect and already seeing some success (e.g. Nightdive Studios) on larger titles using the same strategy.
- Sellers in the niche were personal sellers (e.g. solo/small group devs) not corporates which adds a wrinkle. Feasible multiples (3-5x revenue) appeared too small to be attractive to that type of seller.
  - I received offers to sell a white-labelled copy with an unlimited license for my own use, but that was not attractive.
  - I learned that publicly available indicators (e.g. # of reviews) can be used to accurately approximate revenue. My estimate of annual revenue on one 19-year-old program was accurate within 10%, and the number is larger than you’d think.
While unsuccessful, this strategy I think is viable, the market is there and it’s too small at the bottom end for large players to compete.
- To execute properly likely needs an edge; something like an estate sale, forced seller, corporate divesting non-core assets to pay down debt/finance future projects, unused rights sitting in the vault somewhere, that type of thing.
- I concluded this is a “right place right time” kind of thing, probably not a full-time venture.

- Released two mods for old video games
  - In parallel with the above, I created & released two mods for old video games, testing the hypothesis that iterative development combo’d with true fans would be attractive.
  - Generated over 5000 total downloads across 3 packages – not bad for two weeks work on a 7-year-old and a 23-year-old game.
    - The numbers in this biz are small (single digit hundreds of thousands $) but that is why the opportunity exists; the pool is too shallow for a lot of capital.
  - Incidentally I also made $5 in ad revenue on the packages, which is the smallest amount of money I have ever made on anything but was oddly satisfying to generate.

2. Explored a management training/consulting business – CareerRehearsal

Learned to use Webflow and built the website.
I’d never productized a whole business 0-1 before so I set up job interview coaching as an MVP.
Advertised the service in a community I was familiar with, generating over 30 interviews
Intent was to launch manager training courses
I learned through user discovery that the market for this service was unlikely to support a full-time venture and paused work.

3. Refined my thoughts on management:

Published my manifesto on what good management is and where it comes from and circulated it. Feedback was strongly positive and I received a meaningful amount of inbound, but this is just a starting point.
Crystallised wins in 3 management turnaround stories (CDPR, UBI, MTRO).
- CDPR is a founder-led business whose org practices have not scaled to meet the scale of the organisation, leading to the disastrous CP2077 launch. This is one of the best investments I have ever made; I was long from 360 to 700 and then called the short down to 80. Bought at 80 and tripled my money.
- MTRO was a management turnaround story and I published the thesis here. Ultimately, it didn’t work out, and I made around +30% in 3 years which is not bad for riding the stock down 75% into an emergency recap. I think this an excellent example of buying high uncertainty where there is a crystal clear, defined path to low uncertainty. I would make this trade again & am actively watching for more high-to-low uncertainty situations.
- UBI is a mismanaged video game studio and I have 3x in a row bought puts and calls either side of its then-current price and sold them at 30-50% profits. Yves Guillemot is flailing, and I don’t think he is likely to figure it out; but if he does the stock is worth multiples. It’s either worth >40 or <10 and I simply don’t know which, but I have done a lot of work and keep an eye on it.
- For new followers, I don’t do stocks anymore so don’t follow me for this, but I do keep an eye on mismanaged companies and try to call the outcome as this helps me get reps in / keep my eye in the game.

Spent 3 months meeting with VCs/FOs to find struggling business to help out with.

I think this was a flawed approach. Meetings were interesting but ultimately unsuccessful for couple reasons:
- By time a startup is struggling, investors usually turned down funding rounds, so relationships are frayed/ there isn’t really a mechanism for an introduction. Some investors had really hostile views towards these portfolio company CEOs and in several memorable cases seemed “glad” to see them fail.
  - When the pie is a fixed size and people are arguing over how to divide it up, better pay close attention to who you have in your cap stack.
- Also, I think there are some credibility concerns / PMF issues on my part, didn’t niche down the offering narrow enough so it was hard to create a clear fit / clear ask. My fault & a learning experience.
Parallel to this initiative I also met with several companies looking for leadership talent to help overcome blockers in their core biz.
This is an ongoing interest and my time will come.

Onwards to 2025!

Thank you for reading, and a special thanks to a dozen or so readers who opened doors and/or helped me out on various occasions. You know who you are.

Currently, I am looking to help build/grow a challenger product at a company <$5m revenue and <50 staff. I am a data PM with communication and leadership skills.

At time of publication, the author owned shares in CD Projekt Red and call options on Ubisoft. Updates may not be provided in relation to future trades in any company. This is a disclosure and not a recommendation.