Investing

I purchased shares in Ubisoft today for the first time ever, at 4.70. This may come as a surprise because I have been telling everybody the company is dogshit for at least three years. That view is changing and I believe the company is at peak uncertainty, with direction of fundamentals now moving in the …

Five years ago, I published a series of reports on a group of “pirate” companies after identifying concerns in public filings. For the first time, here is the full story.

I recently reviewed the Halo Technologies IPO (ASX:HAL) prospectuses for its planned listing on the ASX in April 2022. There are several key issues that I’m concerned may deliver suboptimal outcomes for investors. The Setup Halo Technologies provides “online global equities research and trade execution software solution that brings sophisticated institutional-grade analytical frameworks and market …

Metro Bank (LON:MTRO) is undergoing a multi-year turnaround under new CEO Daniel Frumkin. Here’s my take on the work so far, and the chance of success.

After Xinja’s Pivot,  I’m coining Sezzle’s Precipice to describe a company that stands on the knife edge of catastrophic failure. Whether Sezzle tips over the eponymous precipice or skates along the top before riding off into the sunset is yet to be seen.  (I wrote some preliminary thoughts on the company late last year). After …

I have written about Interactive Brokers (NASDAQ:IBKR) before, most notably in Xinja’s Pivot.  During the Covid Crash I purchased it on valuation grounds, but I think there are a lot of fundamental merits to, and opportunity in, the business. I recently pitched the stock and I’ve tidied up my notes to publish here: Stockbroking is …

I am reading Blue Ocean Strategy (Expanded Edition) by W. Chan Kim and Renee Mauborgne.  It is solid gold and I wish I’d read it 10 years ago.  The thing that surprises me most here is that nothing in here is “new”.  Apart from the case studies (which are excellent), I could not put my …

The Airtasker IPO is shaping up to be interesting.  It’s one of my favourite niche topics – private market valuation meets public market investors.  My perception of Airtasker is that there has been a mismatch between perceived growth potential of the business (as measured by valuation) and its actual performance.  That disconnect was arrested painfully …

I’m coining a new phrase, Xinja’s Pivot, to describe “bad-to-worse” changes in business direction.  Mark my words, three years from now it’ll be a hall-of-famer alongside Occam’s Razor and Maslow’s Hammer. Neobanking The thing about neobanks is that if you take the fees out of banking, you take most of the profits out too. What’s …

Sezzle Inc (ASX:SZL) is an Australian Buy-Now Pay-Later (BNPL) company.  It is domiciled in the US and the majority of its operations are in that country. Underlying merchant sales are approaching a $1bn per year run-rate, which is not large – but not trivial, either.  Sezzle has a $1.1bn market cap on $32m in revenue …

A bit over three years ago I began researching a company called Henry Morgan (ASX:HML), its sister company Benjamin Hornigold (ASX:BHD) and their investment manager, John Bridgeman (NSX:JBL).  During my research I posted on this blog, writing that “something doesn’t add up and I remain gravely concerned about the way that Henry Morgan and co …

Note to readers today:  This post was published at the very lowest point of the Covid Crash in 2020. It is designed to be bombastic and provocative, and at that, I think it succeeds.  – Sean Can you feel it? FEAR If you do not look it in the eye, it cannot GET YOU Let …

A number of notable companies and investors today appear largely unaware of the relationship, and potential disconnect, between growth and financial sustainability. It is all well and good to own part of a technology firm that is growing revenue and users rapidly and burning cash. It is also fine to systematically bet on small tech co’s …

Well well. In a pleasing dose of regulatory aggressiveness, The Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC) has filed a Federal Court lawsuit against Bane Hunter and Joel MacDonald of the infamous Getswift (ASX: GSW) – reporting in well under their usual 3 year lead time, I might add.  And they would be silly not to, because the …

I was recently flattered to receive an email asking if I had a reading list that would help somebody who wanted to learn about investing.   I thought that I would tidy my emailed response up further and publish it for the benefit of all. With the caveat that I am not a professional investor and …

Updater Inc (ASX: UPD) is an ASX-listed, USA-domiciled company that provides services to people who are moving house. Updater’s “digital tools help people find and reserve trustworthy moving companies, connect TV and internet, forward their mail, transfer utilities, update accounts, and much more – all in one easy-to-use platform.” I believe that there are a …

I recently read an article about tourism stocks that said something like “the lower Australian dollar is great for tourism demand.” It was implied that this is a tailwind for tourism companies. That’s the consensus view and intuitively it makes sense. If 10,000 Chinese Yuan buys you A$2000, that’s not cool as if it buys …

I am suspicious of much modern ESG investing. It’s great that investors want to invest in bona fide ESG funds for the purposes of conscious capitalism, saving the planet and all that. From a “positive use of your wealth” as well as a “making more $$ by not holding miners” perspective, this is sensible. However, …

Last Friday I sent this presentation to Investor Relations at Oliver’s Real Foods with a request that it be brought to the attention of senior management. I wanted to give Oliver’s some advance warning and give them the opportunity to comment or correct me, if they chose. I did not receive a response from Oliver’s, …

I am totally staggered by this BIG situation, but I’m late to this story. Although I thought the Tipsly transaction was unusual, I didn’t pick any problems with BIG and in fact I had a hard look at its books late last year and I couldn’t see any obvious warning signs. So I did not …

The title of this piece comes from an interview with Getswift (ASX:GSW) executive chairman Bane Hunter.  He’s spot on: Hunter has a clear message for all startup founders seeking US investment: “Data talks, bullshit walks,” he says.  He advises founders to “be conservative and over deliver” when speaking to investors, because “everything you say is going to …

There was a pearler of an announcement from the Getswift (ASX: GSW) this morning. I paraphrase: The share price didn’t move after we first announced the contract, therefore our Fruit Box contract was not material When Fruit Box was cancelled, we hadn’t completely finalised our contract with Commbank, but we were sure hoping to, because …

Not being a hotcopper member myself, I ask that people send me good stuff they see on there. I got this hilarious one overnight: I don’t assert that there is anything wrong with Fantastic Furniture or AFR here, but there is a certain humour in having to source a quote from a known fraud (Fantastic’s …

Can you still be a genius if your viewpoint is the same as everybody else in the market? Asking for a friend. You will know that I wrote about Getswift previously. In that post I focused a lot on the company’s deal with Amazon. I made the silly mistake of assuming that the company’s other contracts …

I came across the Trimantium Growthops upcoming IPO recently. It is a consulting business whose listing process reminds me of National Vet Care (ASX: NVL) and Automotive Solutions Group (ASX: 4WD) in that it involves getting agreements from a list of business owners, raising the funds for IPO, and then using the IPO funds to acquire the …

Topical subject. Getswift Ltd (ASX: GSW) put out a barebones release announcing a deal with Amazon ($AMZN) on Friday morning, before being suspended by the ASX and instructed to prepare a more informative update – probably because shares were up over 100% at one point. The subsequent more informative update was emphatically not more informative, but I’ll get …

I recently had a look at healthy food company Oliver’s Real Foods (ASX: OLI). Oliver’s operates fast-food outlets that sell only healthy and organic food. You can read my purchase thesis here but in my view it is the qualitative factors here that will prove make-or-break for this young brand. These are three key premises (‘beliefs’) that I …