Afterpay: The Not Credit But Actually Retail Tech Company
This article is opinion. While it relies on public information, it also makes use of judgements and guesswork. Readers should always do their own research and read my full disclaimer at the bottom. Afterpay: The Not Credit But Actually Retail Tech Company I like Afterpay. I think their product is great and management have belted …
Sale #9: Sold Oliver’s Real Foods
I’ve sold Oliver’s Real Foods (ASX: OLI), hopefully not permanently, but I’ve seen a few things that made me uncomfortable. In a nutshell it appears to me as though this company is being managed for the short term, not a lifetime. The original thesis went like this: Oliver’s has great niche and underserved customers, minimal competition …
Sell #5: Sold Crowd Mobile
I’ve sold my stake in Crowd Mobile (ASX:CM8). The thesis broke. I wrote this piece prior to the half year result, so info from the half year was not factored into my sale decision. Originally Crowd was priced at 5x-ish cash flow and I figured they’d have debt paid down in a ~year. Given the …
Big Trouble In Big Un
I am totally staggered by this BIG situation, but I’m late to this story. Although I thought the Tipsly transaction was unusual, I didn’t pick any problems with BIG and in fact I had a hard look at its books late last year and I couldn’t see any obvious warning signs. So I did not …
10foot Scuttlebutt: February 2018 edition
Back with another version of scuttlebutt, some stuff I’ve seen or thought recently. I am particularly keen to get thoughts and opinions on alternative investments & the UK fin services sector. Buffett buys Teva Has Warren lost the plot? He’s bought a stake in Teva Pharmaceuticals which has an at EV/EBITDA of 12ish and something …
Getswift: Data Talks, Bullshit Walks
The title of this piece comes from an interview with Getswift (ASX:GSW) executive chairman Bane Hunter. He’s spot on: Hunter has a clear message for all startup founders seeking US investment: “Data talks, bullshit walks,” he says. He advises founders to “be conservative and over deliver” when speaking to investors, because “everything you say is going to …
A lengthy screed on Tower Limited
I’m revealing my undisclosed 10th purchase a little sooner than expected: It’s Tower Insurance Limited (ASX: TWR). I expect a 3-5 year holding period from here, subject to business performance. Conditions are also not quite as favourable as I had hoped for, so I have taken a smaller position with a view to increasing if a better …
Purchase #10: Tower Limited
One of the things I struggle with most with my ‘Buy’ pieces is the overlap between explaining what the opportunity is – which is easy – and explaining the thought process and research that lead to me believing that it is an opportunity – which is hard. Doing both at the same time usually leads …
Sale: Sold Mayne Pharma
I have sold all of my shares in Mayne Pharma (ASX:MYX), and despite the coincidental timing I swear it had nothing to do with Valeant. I would in general call this purchase a failure, although I was lucky to sell out without loss. Why sell? I recently had my Mayne Pharma thesis challenged, which was …
Getswift: The gift that keeps on giving
There was a pearler of an announcement from the Getswift (ASX: GSW) this morning. I paraphrase: The share price didn’t move after we first announced the contract, therefore our Fruit Box contract was not material When Fruit Box was cancelled, we hadn’t completely finalised our contract with Commbank, but we were sure hoping to, because …
