Sean O’Neill

I purchased shares in Ubisoft today for the first time ever, at 4.70. This may come as a surprise because I have been telling everybody the company is dogshit for at least three years. That view is changing and I believe the company is at peak uncertainty, with direction of fundamentals now moving in the …

This is a short overview of the “Dashboard Feed” project I led in my role as Content Product Lead at Simply Wall St, a fintech startup with circa 30 employees (at the time). This project was ultimately highly successful – far more than I’d anticipated at the time – so I want to look at: …

This is an overview of the iApply loan application flow project I ran in my role as Product Manager at Leveraged.  The purpose of this project was to increase revenue, reduce the time lag between marketing spend and revenue generation, and grow the business by losing fewer customers in the funnel.  We would do this by …

Five years ago, I published a series of reports on a group of “pirate” companies after identifying concerns in public filings. For the first time, here is the full story.

I recently reviewed the Halo Technologies IPO (ASX:HAL) prospectuses for its planned listing on the ASX in April 2022. There are several key issues that I’m concerned may deliver suboptimal outcomes for investors. The Setup Halo Technologies provides “online global equities research and trade execution software solution that brings sophisticated institutional-grade analytical frameworks and market …

I have read many misinformed and poorly conceived views on the remote work / working from home (“WFH”) debate. I tweeted about it a few times and that made me feel better for about five minutes but didn’t really solve my problem.  Framing the debate as “is working in-office better than remote work?” is hopelessly …

Metro Bank (LON:MTRO) is undergoing a multi-year turnaround under new CEO Daniel Frumkin. Here’s my take on the work so far, and the chance of success.

The ability to propagate a viewpoint at scale – changing the shape of the playing field – is new in financial markets, and it is a big deal.

The 10footinvestor site has changed. Here’s why, & a summary of the journey so far.

Something I’ve been thinking about for at least five years (and last tried to articulate here) is the transition that happens as a technical founder’s business grows.  Quite often, someone with what I’ll call “technical expertise” starts a business (for the purpose of this article, we will exclude “entrepreneurs” which start with an idea or …

After Xinja’s Pivot,  I’m coining Sezzle’s Precipice to describe a company that stands on the knife edge of catastrophic failure. Whether Sezzle tips over the eponymous precipice or skates along the top before riding off into the sunset is yet to be seen.  (I wrote some preliminary thoughts on the company late last year). After …

In early 2020 I took on managerial responsibilities, which was the definition of being dropped in the deep end.  To be a manager is to have a focus on the process that produces the output, rather than the output itself.  The switch to focusing on the process clicked very quickly with me, piggybacking on years …

I have written about Interactive Brokers (NASDAQ:IBKR) before, most notably in Xinja’s Pivot.  During the Covid Crash I purchased it on valuation grounds, but I think there are a lot of fundamental merits to, and opportunity in, the business. I recently pitched the stock and I’ve tidied up my notes to publish here: Stockbroking is …

I am reading Blue Ocean Strategy (Expanded Edition) by W. Chan Kim and Renee Mauborgne.  It is solid gold and I wish I’d read it 10 years ago.  The thing that surprises me most here is that nothing in here is “new”.  Apart from the case studies (which are excellent), I could not put my …

This is a tricky topic.  To conduct a performance review you need to know a) what is the performance you are measuring and b) what will you change as a result of that measurement, and c) how will that affect your employee.  Is your review process about coaching?  Or is it about salary?  Is it …

The Airtasker IPO is shaping up to be interesting.  It’s one of my favourite niche topics – private market valuation meets public market investors.  My perception of Airtasker is that there has been a mismatch between perceived growth potential of the business (as measured by valuation) and its actual performance.  That disconnect was arrested painfully …

“Soft” assets like brand and software are typically (but not always) created by investing through the income statement where the investment in the assets is expensed rather than capitalised as an intangible asset. This concept is widespread in investing and well understood. What I find really interesting is how this plays out in the explicit …

A challenging task in management is achieving team alignment during a transition. In both fast- and slow-moving businesses, change can be punishing and it is hard to redirect energy to new problems and keep teams engaged in the process. Fast-moving businesses change too fast for comfort with the pace, and slow-moving organisations make people too …

I’m coining a new phrase, Xinja’s Pivot, to describe “bad-to-worse” changes in business direction.  Mark my words, three years from now it’ll be a hall-of-famer alongside Occam’s Razor and Maslow’s Hammer. Neobanking The thing about neobanks is that if you take the fees out of banking, you take most of the profits out too. What’s …

Sezzle Inc (ASX:SZL) is an Australian Buy-Now Pay-Later (BNPL) company.  It is domiciled in the US and the majority of its operations are in that country. Underlying merchant sales are approaching a $1bn per year run-rate, which is not large – but not trivial, either.  Sezzle has a $1.1bn market cap on $32m in revenue …

Workplace stress is about clarity. It is about priorities, capacity, and expectations. When you get those three right, the work environment is much less stressful. If you get it wrong, you’re gonna have a bad time. It is not rocket science, but it’s hard. For the purposes of this post, I plucked an academic publication …

A bit over three years ago I began researching a company called Henry Morgan (ASX:HML), its sister company Benjamin Hornigold (ASX:BHD) and their investment manager, John Bridgeman (NSX:JBL).  During my research I posted on this blog, writing that “something doesn’t add up and I remain gravely concerned about the way that Henry Morgan and co …

Note to readers today:  This post was published at the very lowest point of the Covid Crash in 2020. It is designed to be bombastic and provocative, and at that, I think it succeeds.  – Sean Can you feel it? FEAR If you do not look it in the eye, it cannot GET YOU Let …

I’ve been pretty busy lately on a couple of projects. As always, inspiration strikes at the strangest of times and I have been assembling some thoughts on the challenges faced by growing businesses, from the perspective of an investor who has followed a couple of reasonably large ones like Nearmap and Xero through their many …

I have a friend who is starting a funds management business. I joked with him that, in order to market to investors, he should say that he is a long-only value investor that believes in Warren Buffet, only holds high quality stocks for the long term, real money is made in the holding, lower prices …

An interesting discussion I heard recently was “how can we enhance an organisation’s ability to hit its targets”?  The natural response is to ask “how do you hit a target” and the answer of course is that you can’t. You can’t go out and hit a target because the target (sales, in this case) is a …

A number of notable companies and investors today appear largely unaware of the relationship, and potential disconnect, between growth and financial sustainability. It is all well and good to own part of a technology firm that is growing revenue and users rapidly and burning cash. It is also fine to systematically bet on small tech co’s …

Well well. In a pleasing dose of regulatory aggressiveness, The Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC) has filed a Federal Court lawsuit against Bane Hunter and Joel MacDonald of the infamous Getswift (ASX: GSW) – reporting in well under their usual 3 year lead time, I might add.  And they would be silly not to, because the …

I was recently flattered to receive an email asking if I had a reading list that would help somebody who wanted to learn about investing.   I thought that I would tidy my emailed response up further and publish it for the benefit of all. With the caveat that I am not a professional investor and …

I recently read a letter from Edelweiss Holdings that has both prompted some new thoughts and sharpened up some old thoughts about a crucial concept in finance – ownership. The whole letter is worth a read, but this quote in particular threw bare some implicit assumptions that I had largely taken at face value: “A …

Following the surprise appearance of an article in AFR this morning about the results of a lawsuit against my web host, Dreamscape, and the law firm that represented me, BTLawyers Brisbane, I thought readers might be interested in a brief timeline of events. Mid-last year I began writing a series of posts about Henry Morgan (ASX:HML), Benjamin Hornigold …

Updater Inc (ASX: UPD) is an ASX-listed, USA-domiciled company that provides services to people who are moving house. Updater’s “digital tools help people find and reserve trustworthy moving companies, connect TV and internet, forward their mail, transfer utilities, update accounts, and much more – all in one easy-to-use platform.” I believe that there are a …

I recently read an article about tourism stocks that said something like “the lower Australian dollar is great for tourism demand.” It was implied that this is a tailwind for tourism companies. That’s the consensus view and intuitively it makes sense. If 10,000 Chinese Yuan buys you A$2000, that’s not cool as if it buys …

I am suspicious of much modern ESG investing. It’s great that investors want to invest in bona fide ESG funds for the purposes of conscious capitalism, saving the planet and all that. From a “positive use of your wealth” as well as a “making more $$ by not holding miners” perspective, this is sensible. However, …

Last Friday I sent this presentation to Investor Relations at Oliver’s Real Foods with a request that it be brought to the attention of senior management. I wanted to give Oliver’s some advance warning and give them the opportunity to comment or correct me, if they chose. I did not receive a response from Oliver’s, …

I am totally staggered by this BIG situation, but I’m late to this story. Although I thought the Tipsly transaction was unusual, I didn’t pick any problems with BIG and in fact I had a hard look at its books late last year and I couldn’t see any obvious warning signs. So I did not …

The title of this piece comes from an interview with Getswift (ASX:GSW) executive chairman Bane Hunter.  He’s spot on: Hunter has a clear message for all startup founders seeking US investment: “Data talks, bullshit walks,” he says.  He advises founders to “be conservative and over deliver” when speaking to investors, because “everything you say is going to …

There was a pearler of an announcement from the Getswift (ASX: GSW) this morning. I paraphrase: The share price didn’t move after we first announced the contract, therefore our Fruit Box contract was not material When Fruit Box was cancelled, we hadn’t completely finalised our contract with Commbank, but we were sure hoping to, because …

Not being a hotcopper member myself, I ask that people send me good stuff they see on there. I got this hilarious one overnight: I don’t assert that there is anything wrong with Fantastic Furniture or AFR here, but there is a certain humour in having to source a quote from a known fraud (Fantastic’s …

Can you still be a genius if your viewpoint is the same as everybody else in the market? Asking for a friend. You will know that I wrote about Getswift previously. In that post I focused a lot on the company’s deal with Amazon. I made the silly mistake of assuming that the company’s other contracts …

I came across the Trimantium Growthops upcoming IPO recently. It is a consulting business whose listing process reminds me of National Vet Care (ASX: NVL) and Automotive Solutions Group (ASX: 4WD) in that it involves getting agreements from a list of business owners, raising the funds for IPO, and then using the IPO funds to acquire the …

Topical subject. Getswift Ltd (ASX: GSW) put out a barebones release announcing a deal with Amazon ($AMZN) on Friday morning, before being suspended by the ASX and instructed to prepare a more informative update – probably because shares were up over 100% at one point. The subsequent more informative update was emphatically not more informative, but I’ll get …

I recently had a look at healthy food company Oliver’s Real Foods (ASX: OLI). Oliver’s operates fast-food outlets that sell only healthy and organic food. You can read my purchase thesis here but in my view it is the qualitative factors here that will prove make-or-break for this young brand. These are three key premises (‘beliefs’) that I …

One of the best things about investing is that you will draw on virtually all of your skills, knowledge, and experience at one point or another. I studied narratives at school, formally, as an academic pursuit. It sounds dry, and it kinda was, but it’s proven to be valuable in highly unusual ways. Try deconstructing a …

Six months ago I was asked to explain what a synthetic CDO was.  Well pal, the sky is blue because bankers in Wall Street…. I sort of did my best and drew a few diagrams and we got about halfway there and came to a halt. I understand roughly how a synthetic CDO works, I …

I have recently been reading through well-known investing blogs like Bronte Capital (John Hempton) and Bristlemouth (Forager/Steve Johnson) from their beginnings in 2008 or so. They are very good. I read Hempton’s in its entirety a few years ago and I would recommend his earlier posts as an excellent crash course in how the truck …

In another lifetime, I was a labourer at a scrap metal yard. And when I was there, I met a bloke we’ll call ‘Dave’.  I’ve always wanted to write about him but have never quite had the platform or the context. Now I do, and a little piece of Dave will be immortal forever. He …